September 30 Update

The S&P 500 is up ~13% YTD Just 35% of stocks are outperforming the S&P. 40% of stocks are down on the year.  One-quarter of S&P 500 companies are down 10% or worse in 2026 Most stocks are losers.

The bond market is now pricing-in 4 more 25 basis point rate hikes by June 2027, a total of +125 basis points including September's hike. Just 9 months ago, markets had expected at least 100 basis points of rate CUTS by June 2027.

That's a +225 basis point differential in interest rate expectations in a matter of months.  Meanwhile, the 10Y Note Yield is up nearly +70 basis points in 30 days with no comment from the Trump Administration.

To top it all off, after a failed attempt at intervention, the US Treasury is now completely silent as long-term yields surge to their highest level since June 2002.

The bond market is trading like 7%+ inflation is back and the Fed is about to start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time.