Nov 4 Update

NQ futures were down 2.5% overnight, and rallied to +1%, before settling in. There quite frankly aren't any great explanations for the price action - just a bunch of floppy narratives.

Nasdaq futures were down around 2.5% or over 600 points as elections results came in. 

Rally in the middle of the night.

No definable cause or reason.

The Kobeissi Letter

US stocks tend to rally following Midterm elections:

The S&P 500 has returned +17.2% on average in the year following Midterm elections since 1950, the strongest return of any year in the Presidential cycle.

The index has finished higher in 17 of the 19 post-Midterm years during this period.

This is also nearly quadruple the +4.6% average return recorded during midterm years, when the index finished higher in 11 of 19 years.

By comparison, the S&P 500 has returned +8.1% on average in Year 4 of the Presidential cycle, or during Presidential election years, ending higher in 16 of 19 years.

In Q4 of Midterm years, the S&P 500 has delivered an average return of +6.6% since 1950, the strongest quarterly return of the Presidential cycle.

History suggests US equities will extend their rally after Midterm elections.