August 31 Update

Higher interest rates

        Overleveraged economy and big leverage bet on AI

        Higher interest rates = larger interest payments for federal government

       

Market is assigning 60% probability of a FOMC hike in September.  Was 40% before Jackson Hole speech. 




  • September is historically the worst month of the year for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite.

  • The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have historically declined by an average of 1.1% in September.

  • Traders are preparing for the Federal Reserve’s September 16 policy announcement amid rising expectations of an interest rate hike.


August 28 Update ›